Saturday, March 9, 2019

Where are you on your FIRE journey


Thanks for inputs on last article , lot of folks wanted to know how to be Financially Independent and achieve FIRE . So today I will try and explain some element of FIRE with a case study and FIRE readiness sheet(what else you can expect from  analytics guy 😉)

Well the basics are very simple , which we will understand through case study

1)      Know your goal amount
2)      Identify your expenses and the saving pattern
3)      Most importantly plan your investments and get better returns

Let’s understand this through a case study :-

Jay has a sales job and lives in a tier 2 town say Indore. he has recently discovered the concept of “FIRE- Financial Independent Retire early”. He aspires to be FI Ready in coming years but is not aware about the journey.  Let’s try and understand jay’s finances better.

Jay works in middle management and has an earning of  ~2 lakh , other income (house rent and wife salary) is around 65,000 , taking his household income to 2.65 lakh.  Expenses for jay are ~ 82000 per month (refer to table 2).  

Jay has been working for last 12 years and has invested some amount of money in various instruments. On the asset side Jay has already invested (`65 lakh)  which gives him average annual return of 9.1%.  he has no liabilities as of today.

For Jay to be Financial independent, he is looking at multiple of 35 ( Expense * 35) as per concept of FIRE this number can be  from 25 to 50 times as per the risk appetite and the age, lesser the age or risk appetite  higher the multiple  , however this no can be different for each person )
Looking at the income and expense allocation for Jay. He  will feel safe if he has ~3.5 cr as the corpus  . With his income , expense and investment pattern he will be  Financial independent  in next 15 years (refer to table 3 for investment and table 4 for yearly plan)

How can Jay be FIRE ready before 15 years

-        -  Reduces expenses ( if he reduces his expenses by 10,000 every month , he can be financially independent 2 years before – in 13th Year)
-        -   Increase income ( if he increases his income by 50,000 then the journey can be reduced by 1 year)
-          - Better allocation of finances ( if instead of following the same pattern, Jai changes his financial allocation and gets 12% return , he can be FI four early early)


What is your FIRE plan ,  attached is the Excel to play around and figure your investment and expense, in the next article we will see smart ways to get 12+% returns.

Excel link - 



Saturday, February 23, 2019

ARE your FIRE Ready



Fire is considered to be one the greatest invention for mankind. Humans discovered fire in palaeolithic age which has given human life a new dimension – ability to cook , clear forest, make stone tools to keep predator animals away.  In some sense it put humans on top of the food chain. No wonder all the major old religions treat fire as one of the gods or as important part of their rituals.
Like humans of Palaeolithic age , whose main concern was survival and getting food for the day , what are priorities for modern age man? As yuval noval  Harari argues,  today’s human have to engage and manage  lot of things compared to stone age man whose only priority was food and survival. Over the centuries humans have evolved. Does FIRE has the same significance today ?

FIRE – Financial Independent Retire Early
One of the things I hear from some of my friends is “I have to work for money” is it really so ? do we have to work only for money ? This made me think and finally I am writing this article on how to get out of this circle. For a salaried employee , I cannot control my pay, my bonus , my appraisal ( all 3 are dependent on my boss and how organization is performing) but one thing that I can control is my savings. So we analytics folks say one of the most important variable is how much do you save each month . 
Before  we get into FIRE , lets define what FIRE means for us , atleast for me FIRE is about doing things which I love without thinking about monetary aspects or benefits also ensuring at the same time take life style and future needs of my family are taken care of.
I would define Early retirement is a stage where don’t work “only for Money” but no where it means you stop working.

Sounds exciting , if the answer is  yes , lets get into how to achieve it.
From our corporate world , all of us understand the important of planning , in FIRE also there are broadly three steps
1)      What is your destination   -
2)      By when you want to achieve it
3)      How to achieve it – Most important part  
What and when is your destination  -  Destination clearly means what is the amount of money which will ensure your current and future lifestyle does not change from the current one.
For ex – Say for mr X current expense is 50K a month  , kids schools expenses is 3 lakh a year, holiday expenses and others would be additional 3 lakhs . so current expense is 12 lakh but looking at future he would want minimum 25 lakh a year to be in a safe condition.

Now comes how –
Lets follow the thumb rule – average rate of return in India is 10% so anything over and above that is a great thing (refer to table below) but let’s a take conservative no of 8% (which is  return of debt option) then for 25 lakh I  need 2.5 cr – 3 cr so that I can manage my expenses and also create a kitty for unforeseen circumstances.

Calculation are all fine but I am not sure if I actually need retirement –
Recently there was a news that some folks from TCS / Cognizant were asked to go. At these high salaries they will need 2-3 years to start something which gives the same money so that is the time FIRE helps  also some other reasons I can think are
1)      Because you can !
2)      Give you freedom, courage – You can decide how much shit to take or not take
3)      Your money works for you – Napolean hill in “Grow Rich” talks about the same thing

Btwn lets be fair, not everyone hates their job , I don’t . people love to go to office.  Main Aim  is peace of mind that if anything unforeseen happen at least they will be financially secured.



This is  first article in these series, thanks to my friend Ravi for asking me to write it. will try and add more to this 



Tuesday, October 13, 2015

Insight - Customer centricity

                    Insight – customer Centricity                              

Happy to share more than 50 topics have been written about in Insight which was started 1.5 years ago.  Today’s topic is much talked about in board meetings.
A recent “Customers 2020” report predicts that by 2020, customer experience will overtake both price and product as the key brand differentiator. Many say that it already has. In this article I will share what some of the best companies are doing in customer centricity

  • When it comes to customer centricity “Amazon” is considered to be a forerunner. It comes as no surprise that this value is driven from top. It’s a common knowledge now that CEO Jeff Bezos leaves one seat open at the conference table and states that the seat is occupied by the “the most important person in the room – the customer”. What is important that he believes “Everyone has to be able to work in a call center” so that they get insight into the customer’s perspective. As such, each year he and thousands of Amazon managers attend two days of call center training and field calls periodically. This drives not only centricity but transparency and innovation.
  • Customer centricity is not only limited to “person to person interaction” though it is an important aspect. Companies can do a lot with automation, process and technology. An excellent example is of USAA, a financial group whose customer base is primarily made up of military, retired military and their families. Customer centricity approach led its banking arm (USAA FSB) to put a high priority on developing and deploying checkscan technology, which they did before almost any of their competitors. Why?  Their many members or customers who are deployed overseas, where mail home can be painfully slow. Along with this they offer to text account balances – an extremely helpful feature for soldiers in the field. This is an ideal example of “listen, understand and act”. This philosophy is applied across their insurance arm which provides discount on car insurance while soldiers are deployed overseas. For claim their “My account” system provides customers with the status of their car insurance claim 24/7 so they can be informed as early and as often as needed. No wonder their NPS rates are as highest among insurers and retention rates are in 90%’s.
  • Social media is  becoming a great tool to drive customer centricity, Hilton worldwide have identified this, they noticed 42% of hotel guests expect a response to their post on social media within an hour and this increases to 72% if it is a customer service related issue. Hilton has rolled out policies and procedures to help meet these expectations. In fact, they have taken this so seriously that they tweaked Conrad Hilton’s original Hilton vision to, “Fill the earth with the light and warmth of hospitality – one tweet at a time”.

Customer centric is a way of life as kevin stirtz author of loyal customer says “Every contact we have with a customer influences whether or not they’ll come back. We have to be great every time or we’ll lose them.”


In the coming articles we will look at more example of customer centric organization 

Tuesday, September 15, 2015

Are we rational ???

We deal with people, Humans like to believe that they are rational but research shows most of the time we are not. A field that increasingly recognized in providing insights into understanding this is Behavioural Economics. Lot of people would have heard about it or read about it. In this article I will share how this can be practically used in our line of business.
Rule 1 :- Don’t overload consumers with too much choice (Decision Paralysis)

We generally believe that we like choice; the more choice, the better, and we assume that our desire for choice and our ability to manage it is unlimited. The reality is that consumers often struggle with the number of options available to them, as illustrated by the classic ‘jam sandwich’ study. This research involved setting up an ‘exotic jams’ tasting booth at a high end grocery store in California. On one occasion there were 6 jams at the tasting booth, while on another occasion 24 jams were displayed. Consumer reaction and subsequent purchase was tracked with compelling results; despite the initial appeal of the wider choice of 24 jams, in this case only 3% of consumers actually purchased a jar. In contrast, of the consumers browsing the tasting booth when only 6 jams were available, a staggering 30% went on to purchase a jar.
Consumer product company Proctor & Gamble has since made use of these findings, reducing the number of versions of Head & Shoulders shampoo from 26 to 15. Sales subsequently increased by 10%. Even Apple uses this to give minimal product range to consumers, they have gone to the extent that the new version of the iPad is referred to as exactly that, ‘the new iPad’, not even giving it an upgrade number as has been common practice in the past. We all know the market cap for Apple.

A point for customer service, Giving multiple options (call, SMS, Whatsapp, twitter, FB, Linkedin ) is good but keep tracking that you don’t end up  turning off people. In a Cross sell campaign we tried an experiment to give only one specific task to people to execute and got great results from the campaign.

RULE 2: Consider the positioning of your most profitable options  (Dominated Alternatives: )


Prior to making a purchase choice, consumers generally review the market and begin to identify their preferences. Behavioral Economics research has shown that it is increasingly clear that preferences are actually very malleable and influenced by all manner of context effects. An interesting example is the effect of a decoy option on preference for The Economist subscription renewals. Participants for this were shown a combination of 3 options: (1) Online only for US$59 (2) Print only for US$125 (3) Print and online for US$125.
The first group saw all 3 and unsurprisingly no body picked option 2 and 84% chose option 3. So what is the point of option 2? Well, when it was removed for the next group the number of people choosing option 3 dropped to 32%. Option 2 effectively acted as a decoy making the print and online subscription seem far more attractive than when it was absent.
This can be effectively used in online marketing in making profitable propositions by playing around with Riders.


Rule 3 :- Help consumers make fast and frugal decisions
Consumers struggle to juggle a large number of variables at a time. One study illustrated this well by looking at the way in which magistrates (a court official in UK courts) make decisions concerning whether to allow defendants to have bail (go free until their next court appearance) or whether to retain them on remand (keep them in jail until their next court appearance). Although magistrates are instructed to make their decision based on a wide range of different variables, in the vast majority of cases the researchers found that it was ultimately only one or two pieces of information that influenced the decision (in this case the advice of the prosecution). This ‘fast and frugal’ means of decision making is a useful, adaptive skill we adopt in an attempt to simplify the otherwise complex myriad of everyday decisions we may have to make.
This is highly effective for the branding and product team, The proposition should be not more than 3 and should be strong enough to drive the point.

Rule 4 :- Encourage consumers to take ownership of your services
Once consumers make a purchase and own an item they revalue it, resulting in a reluctance to give it up or exchange it for any other item. People are disproportionately affected by loss compared to what they might gain. This partial ownership changes our perception, so instead of gaining a product at the point of purchase we are effectively losing one, making it hard for us to give up what we just had. A great example of this is online retailer Amazon’s free trial of its express delivery service Amazon Prime. Their limited trial makes customers focus on what they will lose if they cancel their subscription.  A food for thought for the renewal team to work upon communication.

Studies have shown there to be a difference between what consumers have actually experienced and what they remember experiencing. This is a subtle but critically important distinction that has significant implications for the way in which brands manage customer experiences. The clear lesson here is to create positive peaks and positive endings. The former could be a surprise free gift. Meanwhile, a positive ending might be extending a subscription for a short while. Many companies aim to deliver on these. A good example is food-delivery company Abel and Cole which regularly puts tasty surprises in its vegetable boxes. We suspect that the often low value items, such as an avocado, have a disproportionately high impact on consumers and are, therefore, a great means of driving customer loyalty.
Based on the same concept, small and tangible offering were given on  a regular basis to customers which has helped in changing the perception of customers and make them open for cross sell and retention. Customer service team should focus on creating such positive peaks for customers.


The bottom line is insurance companies have to start thinking in the new way and align their processes with the way customers are behaving. As peter drucker says “Doing the right thing is more important than doing the thing right”

Saturday, December 21, 2013

Know your sector - insurance - written on 19 July

In the last article, we looked at cost benefit / profitability for life insurance companies, it is an established fact that Productivity and Activity are important parameters to reduce operational cost as it increases  new business premium thus giving better ROI. In this article we will explore productivity of Tied agency and Corporate Agents in detail.
Share of individual policies of different channels

Private
LIC
Total

Individual Agents
Corporate Agents
Others
Individual Agents
Corporate Agents
Others
Individual Agents
Corporate Agents
Others
2007-08
59.73
26.97
13.31
97.99
1.91
0.1
88.01
8.44
3.54
2008-09
56.16
25.73
18.11
97.66
2.31
0.08
85.38
9.22
5.4
2009-10
48.42
35.95
15.62
98.06
1.91
0.03
84.66
11.1
4.24
2010-11
47.65
38.2
14.15
98.06
1.86
0.08
86.44
10.24
3.33
2011-12
48.12
37.72
14.16
98.1
1.64
0.26
88.55
8.53
2.92
Traditionally, the individual tied agent were the dominant players in the market. Gradually corporate agents have also occupied significant space in the arena (as seen above). Insurance industry employs around 23 lakh individual advisors, bulk of them working for LIC. Though we have seen a drop in No of Individual agents (20% from 2009), still the channel contributes around 88% of overall business for industry.

  
No of individual Agents (in lakhs)

2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Private
8.9
13.27
15.93
15.75
13.02
10.81
LIC
11.03
11.94
13.45
14.03
13.37
12.78
Industry
19.93
25.21
29.38
29.78
26.39
23.59
Source :- IRDA
The next data points are more shocking, the average productivity of LIC agent is 9 times the average productivity of private insurance industry. Is this clear that average no of individual policies sold by private insurers have been consistently lower to LIC and have also seen a downward trend. Private insurers have dipped from 7 policies to merely 3 policies in 2011-12. Even employee channels are not able to maintain the same ratio of Agency for LIC. This is a serious concern and need to be addressed immediately.
Productivity:-
Average No of individual policies sold by individual Agent

2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Private
7
6
4
4
3
LIC
32
28
28
26
27
Industry
20
16
15
15
16
Source :- IRDA
Similar numbers can be seen on CA front also, where a huge decline was seen in CA partners. (70% drop compared to 2007). The no of CA for Private industry has been reduced to one third of 2007 level.

No of corporate Agents

2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Private
1906
2070
2091
2420
1870
642
LIC
409
345
415
510
295
240
Industry
2315
2415
2506
2930
2165
882
Source :- IRDA
LIC has put lot of efforts on corporate agent front also, there CA productivity is increasing for last two years.
Average No of individual policies sold by CA

2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Private
1798
1857
2289
1976
2533
LIC
1905
2190
1606
1708
2194
Industry
1815
1908
2172
1933
2474

The objective of this article is to create some awareness about the scope in improvement for private players. In coming articles I will share some of the best practices across globe in increasing productivity.
Do share your feedback on this